Approximately 12 million people in the Netherlands will have some sort of chronic illness by 2050, according to data released in the Public Health Future Outlook (PHF) report recently published by the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM). By comparison, the number of individuals diagnosed as having at least one chronic condition in the Netherlands was approximately 10.5 million in 2022. The PHF suggests the nation faces several challenges when it comes to preparing for the public health issues likely to emerge in the coming years. The PHF report is published by the RIVM once every four years and provides information about the current state of affairs when it comes to public health in the Netherlands, delves into current challenges and discusses potential issues that are likely to arise in the future.
Two conditions in particular, dementia and arthritis, are already on the rise, and the number of individuals suffering from them is likely to increase substantially within the coming decades. The PHF suggests there could be a doubling of cases of these two illnesses in the Netherlands by 2050. In 2022, there were approximately 261,000 people suffering from dementia in the Netherlands – a number likely to increase to 506,000 by 2050, according to a recent article by knowledge institute Stichting Beroepseer. Approximately 1.6 million people were diagnosed as having arthritis in 2022, so there could be close to 3 million arthritis sufferers in the Netherlands by 2050.
Dementia and arthritis are far from the only conditions predicted to increase in the coming years: the PHF suggests that there are likely to be more work and sports-related injuries and kidney problems, as well as back and neck issues. The PHF describes the various challenges that are likely to have an impact on public health in the Netherlands in the coming decades, including the ageing of the population, health differences within the populace, increasingly unhealthy lifestyles among young people, difficulties providing quality care in the face of steadily increasing demand for healthcare services, and environmental factors. The report suggests that mental health issues are likely to rise among younger individuals in the coming years and that healthcare personnel shortages, along with rising demand for care, are also likely to cause future challenges.
The ageing of the Dutch population is the most pressing issue when it comes to the nation’s public health, as it’s closely linked to the predicted growth in the number of individuals with chronic medical conditions. The increase in the number of chronic conditions is likely to be most pronounced among those over the age of 75. The report also points to a likely increase in the number of individuals suffering from multiple chronic health conditions. In 2022, there were approximately 3.3 million people with at least three chronic health conditions; that number is forecast to reach around 4.3 million by 2050. The report also suggests a need for creating new living arrangements that can meet the needs of ageing yet often still vital seniors.
Differences in health between individuals in the Netherlands are also cited as a challenge. According to the report, socio-economic factors often have a substantial impact when it comes to health outcomes: individuals with safe living situations and financial security often enjoy better health for longer than those struggling to make ends meet or dealing with unstable or unsafe living conditions. The report also identifies a crucial public health task the creation of healthy living environments that are able to respond to climate change.
The report suggests that many of the issues that have an impact on public health are closely related, and as such, effective solutions to these looming issues require integrated approaches that allow various challenges to be addressed simultaneously.
Written by Lorre Luther