The Netherlands is facing a significant decline in birth rates, raising alarm about potential consequences for the country’s demographics and labour force. Pieter Omtzigt, leader of political party New Social Contract (NSC), highlighted that the country is experiencing more deaths than births, marking the first time this has occurred in recent history. During the HJ Schoo lecture, Omtzigt stated that women had an average of about 1.5 child in 2023. He stressed that if this trend continues, the population could ‘shrink very rapidly’, adding that increased labour migration would be required to address workforce shortages. Omtzigt explained that the Netherlands is not alone in thisdemographic decline. Many other European countries face similar challenges.
Demographic shift and labour migration
Omtzigt emphasised that the drop in birth rates has severe implications for the labour market. According to NU.nl, heargued that the Netherlands would increasingly depend on labour migration from non-European countries to sustaineconomic growth and mitigate workforce shortages. Additionally, Omtzigt mentioned that while migration policies havebeen a focus of political debate, they have largely led to polarised reactions, needing more effective policies to address the broader implications of demographic change.
In his lecture, Omtzigt drew attention to the broader political discourse on migration, which has often failed to engage with the underlying demographic shifts. He referenced recommendations from former leaders like Frits Bolkestein andJan Peter Balkenende, who discussed the impact of migration, but noted that these debates often stalled without concrete action. Omtzigt argued that ‘effective policy is lacking’ despite years of discussion.
Data and fertility trends
Data from Statistics Netherlands (CBS) reinforces Omtzigt’s concerns. In 2022, the country recorded only 167,504births, a steep drop from earlier decades, which often saw more than 200,000 births. The Netherlands’ total fertility rate stood at 1.49, far below the 2.1 children per woman required for the population to sustain itself. According to CBS, this long-term decline began in the 1970s and has worsened over the last decade, with recent numbers signalling a sharp drop.
In addition to birth rate trends, CBS reports a shift in seasonal birth patterns. Whereas more children were traditionally born in spring, the late summer months now see higher birth numbers. This shift has been linked to advancements in contraception, which allow families more control over family planning.
Long-term consequences
In a blog post on the NSC website, Omtzigt noted that while the Netherlands is not unique in its demographic decline,it must consider what might happen if birth rates fall to the levels seen in countries like Spain or South Korea, where population decline is significant.
Omtzigt stressed that the ongoing housing shortage and other economic worries have delayed family formation among young people, further compounding the problem. He called for a comprehensive approach to address these issues, including housing, healthcare, and labour market reforms. ‘The time for debate and research is over,’ he said, urging the government to implement solutions before the consequences become unmanageable.
Written by Nicole Bea Kerr